China Military Exercise, Replica of 1996 Taiwan Strait Crisis？
By Zhao Chun-shan
United Daily News, August 15, 2020
Against the backdrop of increasingly tense U.S.-China and cross-strait relations, China is conducting multi-directional and multi-service combat exercises at the northern and southern ends of the Taiwan Strait. While these military exercises bear close resemblance to the events of the Taiwan Strait Crisis of 1996, there are some differences worth noting.
Looking first at the similarities. Both Chinese military exercises were communicated in the name of “anti-independence” and in response to Taiwan’s diplomatic actions relating to the United States. The Taiwan Strait crisis of 1996 was ostensibly a response to the visit to Cornell University by former President Lee Teng-hui, whose speech Beijing felt promoted Taiwan’s independence. To avoid fomenting a climate of support for Taiwan independence so close to Taiwan’s presidential elections, mainland China launched a series of “verbal attacks and military intimidation tactics” against Taiwan.
The military exercise this time around can also be said to relate to the United States, as the ruling Democratic Progressive Party in Taiwan has received strong support from the United States. For example, China believes that Taiwan is taking advantage of the pandemic to join the World Health Organization (WHO) and characterizes U.S. Secretary of Health and Human Services Alex Azar’s visit to Taiwan as “interference in internal affairs.”
Second, we will neither exaggerate nor rule out the influence of China’s internal situation on the recent military exercises. During the Taiwan Strait crisis in 1996, Western observers noticed that the hardliners within the mainland, especially some generals in the People’s Liberation Army, were dissatisfied with Jiang Zemin's Taiwan policy and criticized Jiang's policy toward the United States as being too weak. To secure his position and consolidate power, Jiang had to take a tough stance against Lee Teng-Hui’s visit to Cornell. At present, Chinese leader Xi Jinping has amassed considerable power, but the pandemic and its effects coupled with rising tensions with the United States have put Xi under internal and external pressures.
The most notable difference between the two military exercises is the imbalance of the current trilateral relationship. U.S.-China relations have moved from strategic competition to strategic confrontation — described by some as the “New Cold War.” In contrast, the relationship between Taiwan and the United States is improving forming a "quasi-alliance" relationship. The United States has also passed a series of laws to "legalize" and "normalize" its relationship with Taiwan. As for cross-strait relations, the situation is worse than ever before: with no communication between officials and clashes of public opinion. Even during the crisis of 1996, secret back channels still existed to ease the tension.
We also see that the degree of American involvement is different in this instance. In early 1996, President Bill Clinton was busy with the Middle East and the government had no contingency plan for the Taiwan Strait crisis. Indeed, Clinton said in his memoir that the United States has never stated whether it will help in the event Taiwan is attacked. Deputy Assistant Secretary of State Susan Shirk said: “The two aircraft carrier groups only passed near Taiwan to demonstrate their determination to defend Taiwan if needed. But they did not enter the Taiwan Strait.” In contrast, the Trump administration has now come prepared, regarding Taiwan as a member of the Indo-Pacific system. To express support for Taiwan, U.S. military aircraft and ships have recently increased their cruise activities in the vicinity.
I think that the purpose of this Chinese military exercise is still to "suppress independence by force". However, if Taiwan conducts military counter-measures or if the United States decides to use military intervention to safeguard its geopolitical interests, the “Cold War” will soon heat up. In other words, the Taiwan Strait is a flashpoint with terrible potential with the slightest misstep. What will follow will also not be the same as it was in 1996, which allowed U.S.-China relations to move “one step backward and two steps forward,” establishing a “constructive strategic partnership.” U.S.-China relations has now turned to confrontation and entered a period of struggle. As for cross-strait relations, it is even harder to imagine that it will return to “normal” as it did following the crisis in 1996.
James Blake, a scholar of the Council on Foreign Relations said: “Taiwan is like a loaded pistol pointed at the head of China and the United States. There are people in Taiwan, the United States, and China who want to test its trigger.” I am sure that the administration of President Tsai Ing-wen will not be the one that pulls.